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Building Recovery Forecast

The downturn in the Australian building sector will bottom out this financial year with Queensland forecast to play a major role in the recovery.

Leading building market analyst and economic forecaster BIS Oxford Economics found national building commencements contracted by about 12 per cent in 2018-19 to AUD$109.8 billion from the record peak reached in the previous financial year… with an 8 per cent decline forecast for 2019-20 with the fall in residential building outweighing growth expected in the non-residential sector…

BIS Oxford Economic managing director Robert Mellor said “strong population growth, a rising national dwelling stock deficiency and housing stimulus (are set to boost) total building activity (which) is anticipated to climb near its previous peak over the coming five years and Queensland and Western Australia are well-positioned to lead the next residential upturn ahead of NSW and Victoria.”  

The report found that undersupply will drive the residential market over the four years, with dwelling commencements forecast to rise a cumulative 55 per cent to a peak of 236,650 in 2023-24. Non-residential building commencements…will hold at a record base of around $47 billion per annum through to 2022-23.

Mr. Mellor said NSW and Queensland will lift to record levels in non-residential building over the next two years.

This excerpt has been compiled from a story by Chris Herde, published in the Business section of the Courier Mail on Monday 29th July 2019